A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
